Aujourd'hui la crise semble avoir pris un tour nouveau, avec un certain nombre d'annonces concomittantes qui laissent présager un bain de sang conforme aux prédictions des pessimistes :
- Le fonds Carlyle se plante, et entraîne avec lui le marché du crédit (moins par son importance intrinsèque que par les doutes qu'il génère sur la liquidité générale de ses congénères)
- La Fed se lance dans un nouvel exercice d'injection de liquidités dans le système
- Les chiffres de l'emploi US sont tombés il y a deux heures et sont abominables
Surprise fall in jobs fuels US recession fears
By Chris Bryant
Published: March 7 2008 14:07 Last updated: March 7 2008 14:30
US employers cut the most jobs in almost five years last month, increasing the odds that the economy could fall into a recession.
Non-farm payrolls fell 63,000 in February, the most since June 2003, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. Economists had expected an unchanged reading.
Adding to the headache for investors, January’s loss of 17,000 jobs was revised lower to a decline of 22,000 while an initial estimate of a gain of 82,000 jobs in December was cut to 41,000.
Manufacturers (down 52,000), construction firms (down 39,000) and retailers (down 34,000) all slashed jobs last month, the Department of Labor said, although food services and health care continued to defy the trend.
Another slight consolation was a fractional downtick in the unemployment rate, which fell a tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 per cent.
After the jobs report, stock futures fell sharply while treasuries rallied amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to keep cutting interest rates . Meanwhile, the dollar plunged to a fresh record low against the euro.
The futures market fully priced in a 75 basis point rate cut when the Fed meets later this month, with a 22 per cent likelihood of a more aggressive 100bp cut.
John Ryding, chief US economist at Bear Stearns, said back-to-back nonfarm payroll declines were “a strong indication that the economy has fallen into recession” which raised the likelihood of an inter-meeting 50bp rate cut.
Traders were alert to a bad number as immediately before the data the Fed increased to $100bn the total size of its March term auctions - whereby banks can borrow funds more cheaply from the Fed - to help ease liquidity pressures.
The Fed also announce a series of new term repo operations which will allow banks to borrow another $100bn against collateral, including agency-backed mortgages.
A report on private sector employment had indicated weakness in the jobs market earlier this week, registering an unexpected decline of 23,000 jobs
Although initial jobless claims dipped in the latest week, they too have been trending higher. Data on US manufacturers have also been particularly weak while the ISM non-manufacturing index has contracted for two consecutive months.
