jeudi 29 novembre 2007

Buiter on the credit crunch

Buiter analyse le credit crunch et ses possibles conséquences sur l'économie "réelle", dans une optique raisonnablement optimiste mais qui contient ce joyau de citation (c'est la première fois que je vois cette idée, que je partage entièrement, exprimée de manière aussi brillamment claire et concise)

(...) From the point of view of the efficient allocation of resources in the medium and long term, the relative (probably even absolute in the short run) contraction in the size of the financial sectors of the advanced industrial countries is a desirable development, as for a number of years now, the private returns in the financial sector have exceeded the social returns by an ever-growing margin. Too much scarce analytical and entrepreneurial talent has been attracted into activities that, while privately profitable and lucrative, were socially zero-sum at best. In the short run, this cutting down to size of ‘Wall Street’ and ‘the City’ will inevitably have some negative side effects for Main Street also. However, the entire financial sector in the UK accounts for only about 7.5 percent of GDP, and the banking sector for no more than five percent of GDP. A sectoral depression will be painful, but of limited macroeconomic significance. In the medium and long term, moreover, a more balanced sectoral allocation of the best and the brightest will be beneficial.